Is NOTA an effective political weapon?

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NOTA, TINA FACTOR & RESERVATION IN MAHARASHTRA

There are three kind of lies. Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain

The educated society able to comprehend things has belatedly woken up to the reality of reservation and its effects on the prospects of their children, the perennial favourite but habitually neglected ‘future of India’.

After the Maharashtra government hastily announced reservation of 16% in education and jobs, these people, particularly the medical community came to with a jump start. As a joint activity of sorts, some doctors in Mumbai filed writ petition challenging the reservation. They were the only people in whole of Maharashtra to agitate against the reservation personally, apart from one Sanjeet Shukla who had also challenged the earlier iteration of the Maratha reservation and secured relief in the form of stay to the effect of the reservation from the Bombay High Court. 

However, the fight wearily went on in the High Court, a cumbersome hearing of more than three months. Some animation was given by the Nagpur High Court ruling that the reservation for Marathas won’t apply for the current year in admissions to PG medical and dental courses. Somehow, the order did not come into effect.

In the meanwhile, after the Maratha reservation was announced, the results for the three state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh were announced. Amongst the analysis of the foreseen defeat of the incumbent BJP government in all three states due to various local factors, was a table giving numbers of votes to the winner and loser, the margin of loss and the NOTA votes. Conclusion: It was NOTA votes that had defeated BJP in the seats which would have ensured return to power for BJP. 

Of course, the premise is fallacious. Anti-incumbency was a big factor for the states, as was past history. Despite everything, BJP had performed really well, particularly in MP. But eager pollsters, stat,isticians and vulnerable people willing somehow to see the back of the present government in Maharashtra found a favourite theme on which to ruminate the long summer awaiting the decision of the electorate in the parliamentary elections.

And slogans like NOTA ka Sota were born. Angry poets gave vent to popular feeling in violent imagery. Motives were ascribed to the government for their lawful exercise of enacting a law favouring a particular community. NOTA, the feeling went would be the only way to stop the designs of the duo of the CM and the minister in charge of Maratha reservation. Memes were made. And the grand illusion of NOTA as a collective weapon of protest was born. This was driven purely as propaganda made possible by social media and overzealous parents eager to do SOMETHING. They talked of NOTA. And they talked of NOTA some more.  

In the meanwhile, the Central government had increased the reservation further by extending reservation to the economically weaker sections [EWS]. The catch was that 10% seats could be reserved only after creation of 25% extra seats. The Maharashtra government unwisely declared that both Maratha and EWS reservation would be applied from this year. There was a provision in the original SEBC Act granting reservation that in effect ruled out application of Maratha reservation for PG and UG medical and dental education. There was furious reaction and many court cases were filed. Unfortunately, the Courts could not give succuor to the suffering students and parents.

With each passing day, the government did things in furtherance of their common intention of providing safeguards against the failure of the reservation policy. It employed the best lawyers they could find. The ministers, unwisely and perhaps illegally spoke about the likely outcome of litigation. When the Nagpur High Court order was pronounced, it was immediately declared that the state would go in appeal. When the Supreme Court refused to interfere, the talk of an Ordinance began in earnest. In time, that Ordinance was brought.

Genuinely suffering students and more so, their parents were and are frustrated with the government. Yet, the government is doing is logical follow-up of a deliberately planned policy of reservation. Some are affected, may be lives are altered. But it is thus, and needs must be so. The Supreme Court has yet to rule finally on both reservations.

The election programme has been declared. The talk of NOTA has intensified and reached a deafening level. Every group on social media has a mention daily of NOTA. Advocates of NOTA think it is the only way to bring the government to heel. Others think that they will have a better chance of defeating the government by contesting the elections on reservation plank. Still others are realistic enough to think that they would be unable to bring down the government. Yet, these optimists believe that by voting NOTA in large numbers, they will make their voice heard. That government will learn a lesson not to tamper with a “loyal, supporting votebank.” Some have a grievance that the government has backstabbed them, and the only way is to retaliate is by doing just that, the trusted vote-bank going against their party of choice.

What is the viability or utility of NOTA? None Of The Above is a very, very fancy way of thumbing the nose of democracy. It allows a voter the unique pleasure of dancing in the rain without getting wait. On the contrary, it is also like going to a movie, buying a ticket and some snacks and then going back home without watching the movie. It is like getting a patient to a hospital by great efforts and then taking him back home against medical advice. The patient is not treated, the doctor’s skills go unutilized and the efforts of taking him to the hospital wasted.

NOTA is a waste. And on top of that, in Maharashtra, one should just go back a bit to remember that BJP-Shivsena alliance got a thumping victory in parliamentary elections. Not much has changed since then. And then one should know the TINA factor. There Is No Alternative. The Congress is in shambles. Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi which created a stir in the parliamentary election has disintegrated. The NCP is crumbling. There is no leader standing to challenge the immensely popular Devendra Fadnavis.

And contrary to what a bunch of politically naïve people would like to believe, reservation is not a plank for elections. The educated population of Maharashtra, all combined would not make a dent in the vote-share of the winning combine. Parties do not take up policies like reservation without having done their basic arithmetic. It is fallacious to assume that the idea of NOTA would resonate with the man on the street or even the members of social groups fervently advocating NOTA. We, as a nation, are much more partisan than we care to admit, and personal prejudices or preferences go a long way in deciding who to vote for in an election, particularly assembly election.  Caste, personal relations, local affiliation and most of all, party loyalty are factors that matter in selecting the candidate you vote for. 

Voting is strictly a personal choice. Not to be influenced by persons other than ones seeking your vote is the key to being a good citizen. A candidate is entitled to seek your vote, a party may be right in asking you to vote for its candidates, but to advice NOTA is a strict no-no. Firstly, you are insulting the intelligence of the other person. Secondly, you are influencing a vote which may fall in the category of one of the various offences under the Representation of the People Act. Thirdly, for NOTA to be effective, it should get the most votes, in which unlikely scenario also, the result would be the same. And lastly, you may end up violating one of the many rules governing model code of conduct. One does not know whether it can be an offence, but why test uncharted waters by advocating NOTA?

And NOTA to what end? Barring a few individuals, the contestants would be the same, and ultimately, as long as the present system continues, no better person would be in the fray. All in all, a big exercise resulting in nothing. Except satisfaction of a few misguided but zealous activists. That side of October, we’ll see whether the hype and hoopla worked. Or the unsuspecting populace was taken on ride, again. This time not by politicians, but by mischief-mongers.

N. B. It is of comfort to know that major reservation policies have resulted in the incumbent party losing power. Think of V. P. Singh after Mandal Commission was implemented. Think of Prithviraj Chavan after the Maratha reservation was announced by Ordinance in 2014.  

© Adv. Shrirang Choudhary